Presidential Elections

National Data

From 1972 to 2012, the overall Latino voter turnout has increased by 9.1 billion. 64 65 66

In all presidential elections between 1972 and 2012, Republican candidates have never carried the Black vote. Traditionally, Republican social group strategy has focused primarily on dominating the White vote while splitting the female vote and maintaining a respectable percentage of the Latino and labor votes. This strategy proved to be successful in 1972 (Richard Nixon), 1980 (Ronald Reagan), 1984 (Ronald Reagan), 1988 (George H.W. Bush), 2000 (George W. Bush), and 2004 (George W. Bush). On the other hand, the 1992 reelection campaign of George H.W. Bush and the 2008 campaign of John McCain are examples of when the Republican strategy does not work. 70 71 72

In the past, the social group strategy of the Democrats has dominated the Black, Latino, and labor votes while maintaining a respectable percentage of the White and female votes. This political tactic successfully carried the Democratic candidates to presidential wins in 1976 (Jimmy Carter), 1992 (Bill Clinton), 1996 (Bill Clinton), 2008 (Barack Obama), and 2012 (Barack Obama). Jimmy Carter’s 1980 reelection campaign is an example of when this strategy fails to win over these voting groups. 76 77 78

Past presidential elections show that the winning candidates tend to carry all or most of the key eighteen states that represent 90.2% of Latino registered voters. However, this does not always guarantee a presidential win, as demonstrated during the Bush/Gore (2000) and Bush/Kerry (2004) elections. In these instances, Al Gore and John Kerry carried eleven and ten out of eighteen states, respectively, and lost. 82 83 84

The upcoming 2016 presidential election is on the heels of the Obama administration’s executive orders on immigration and the ensuing response of a Republican-dominant Congress. It has become a major discussion point for presidential candidates from all political parties. This also means that some of the most contentious battleground states will include Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, states with sizable Latino populations who are eligible to vote. Presidential candidates know that they must focus on these key states if they want to be elected President of the United States.

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ELECTION RESULTS 2012
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LATINO VOTES CAST 1972 - 2012

From 1972 to 2012, the overall Latino voter turnout has increased by 9.1 billion. 25 26 27

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SOCIAL GROUP STRATEGY: REPUBLICANS

In all presidential elections between 1972 and 2012, Republican candidates have never carried the Black vote. Traditionally, Republican social group strategy has focused primarily on dominating the White vote while splitting the female vote and maintaining a respectable percentage of the Latino and labor votes. This strategy proved to be successful in 1972 (Richard Nixon), 1980 (Ronald Reagan), 1984 (Ronald Reagan), 1988 (George H.W. Bush), 2000 (George W. Bush), and 2004 (George W. Bush). On the other hand, the 1992 reelection campaign of George H.W. Bush and the 2008 campaign of John McCain are examples of when the Republican strategy does not work. 28 29 30

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SOCIAL GROUP STRATEGY: DEMOCRATS

In the past, the social group strategy of the Democrats has dominated the Black, Latino, and labor votes while maintaining a respectable percentage of the White and female votes. This political tactic successfully carried the Democratic candidates to presidential wins in 1976 (Jimmy Carter), 1992 (Bill Clinton), 1996 (Bill Clinton), 2008 (Barack Obama), and 2012 (Barack Obama). Jimmy Carter’s 1980 reelection campaign is an example of when this strategy fails to win over these voting groups. 31 32 33

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THE ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

Past presidential elections show that the winning candidates tend to carry all or most of the key eighteen states that represent 90.2% of Latino registered voters. However, this does not always guarantee a presidential win, as demonstrated during the Bush/Gore (2000) and Bush/Kerry (2004) elections. In these instances, Al Gore and John Kerry carried eleven and ten out of eighteen states, respectively, and lost. 34 35 36

The upcoming 2016 presidential election is on the heels of the Obama administration’s executive orders on immigration and the ensuing response of a Republican-dominant Congress. It has become a major discussion point for presidential candidates from all political parties. This also means that some of the most contentious battleground states will include Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, states with sizable Latino populations who are eligible to vote. Presidential candidates know that they must focus on these key states if they want to be elected President of the United States.

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TABLES & GRAPHS
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